ලෝක ආහාර සැපයුම් දාමයට එල්ලවෙමින් පවතින නවතම අනතුරු ඇඟවීමක් ලෙස, “සුපිරි එල් නිනෝ” තත්ත්වයක් කෙරෙහි ගෝලීය අවධානය දැඩි ව යොමුවී තිබේ. පැසිෆික් සාගරයේ ජල උෂ්ණත්වය අසාමාන්ය ලෙස ඉහළ යෑමෙන් ඇතිවන එල් නිනෝ කාලගුණ සංසිද්ධිය, මේ වසරේ ඉතා ප්රබල තත්ත්වයකට පත්විය හැකි බවට විද්යාඥයින් අන…
Global attention has been focused on a “super El Niño” event, the latest warning to the global food supply chain. Scientists have warned that the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is characterized by unusually high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, could become very strong this year, putting new pressure on global food prices, crop production, fertilizer and fuel costs, economic analysts have pointed out.
The financial world is already preparing for this risk, given how serious it is.
According to a Bloomberg report, hedge fund Moreton Capital Partners is preparing to set up a $500 million commodity fund targeting commodity markets that could see price and supply changes due to El Niño. The fund is set to trade commodities such as South African corn, Malaysian palm oil and Australian wheat.
Leigh Finemore, co-founder of Moreton Capital, says the market needs to “properly assess” the risk of El Niño at this point. In his view, this is not just a weather event, but a potential food-restructuring event.
Scientifically, El Niño is a phenomenon in which global rainfall and temperature patterns are disrupted by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result, one region can experience severe drought while another region experiences flooding, heavy rains and crop damage.
Earlier this month, scientists officially confirmed the El Niño event, and there have been warnings that it could be one of the strongest El Niños on record. The delayed onset of the monsoon in India is already seen as a first sign of that risk. Reuters reports that India, Southeast Asia and Australia are all in the midst of this The World Bank has also warned that El Niño could put even more pressure on food prices than currently expected. This comes at a time when fertilizer and fuel costs are already high due to the Middle East crisis and the Iran-related war. That is, three factors that affect the global food system at the same time – weather, energy and fertilizer – are coming together on the same stage.
How will this affect Sri Lanka?
For a country like Sri Lanka, which is still significantly dependent on imports, has not completely escaped foreign exchange pressures, and is highly sensitive to monsoon patterns, a “super El Niño” is not a distant global event, but an import crisis that could directly affect the domestic economy.
First, it would raise the risk of higher food import costs. Countries such as India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia have experienced significant crop and If exports are pressured, international prices of rice, sugar, lentils, edible oils, animal feed and other staples could rise. Particularly if the monsoon in India is disrupted, there could be risks to the supply of rice, sugar and other agricultural commodities to the region from that country. Reports have already been published on the delay of the monsoon in India and the pressure on sugar exports.
Second, domestic agriculture could be under increased weather pressure. Both the Yala and Maha seasons in Sri Lanka depend crucially on rainfall patterns, reservoir filling, dry zone temperatures and water access for farmers. If the rainfall pattern is distorted by El Niño conditions, there is a possibility of reduced productivity in sectors such as paddy, maize, vegetables, fruits, coconut and tea. In particular, the consequences could be increased pressure on the dry zone reservoir system, disruption of cropping schedules and increased costs for farmers.
Third, the government should be mindful of the risk of a resurgence of food inflation. Sri Lanka Sri Lanka has been hit hard by high food inflation in recent years, and the pressure has eased somewhat as domestic supply has recovered to some extent and international prices have fallen. However, if world market prices rise due to El Niño, it could return to the market as imported inflation. The burden will ultimately fall on the consumer’s wallet.
Fourth, it could put additional pressure on foreign exchange and public financial management. Sri Lanka still needs foreign exchange to import food, fuel and some agricultural inputs. Rising world market prices, coupled with an increase in the import bill, could put a double whammy on the rupee, the trade balance and the cost of living.
Therefore, this warning of a “Super El Niño” situation tells Sri Lanka one simple thing.
Weather is now not just an environmental story, but a geo-economic factor that determines food security, foreign exchange, inflation and national economic stability. There is.
In such a situation, Sri Lanka should prepare essential food reserves and import plans in advance, prepare water management and irrigation systems, stabilize fertilizer and seed supplies, monitor price risks of basic commodities such as rice, lentils, sugar, edible oil in advance, and develop an early warning food-economic response mechanism that integrates weather forecasts, farmer advisories and market data.
This is because although the world market has not yet fully priced in this risk, its impact may ultimately start from the farm and end in the consumer's food and beverage basket.
El Niño is not just circulating in the atmosphere. It will undoubtedly become a new global warning that can be read on world food price charts, import bills and the daily living costs of ordinary people in Sri Lanka in the future.
Vijaya Dissanayake