by Eng. Parakrama Jayasinghe El Niño is here! It is now official. With the fear of it being even a super El Niño, the authorities have been summoned by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake for an urgent discussion and instructions have been given on measures to initiate possible m…
by Eng. Parakrama Jayasinghe
El Niño is here! It is now official. With the fear of it being even a super El Niño, the authorities have been summoned by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake for an urgent discussion and instructions have been given on measures to initiate possible mitigation measures. These have spanned a wide spectrum of sectors which are in danger of being gravely affected. While food production and energy have received much attention, even the drinking water supply is expected to be adversely affected. However, by and large the feeling that an ordinary citizen gets, on listening to the reportage on public media, is that at least on this critical issue there are no cohesive, detailed pragmatic plans and strategies being discussed and promoted. It may not be impossible to mitigate the possible effects of El Niño fully, but what we can hope for is a degree of mitigation. El Niño is nearly upon us and there is no time for longdrawn discussions or time-consuming plans. Specific comments on electricity sector I would like to focus on the electricity sector in particular and its unavoidable links to irrigation and domestic water supply. We have already discussed in earlier articles, how power cuts are being avoided by using diesel for power generation, with grave impacts on balance of payments as well as the economy. In response to a query, in public media, the Chairman of the National System Operator (NSO) has said he expects a fuel subsidy to continue until September and therefore there will be an increase in cost of diesel and consequently a hike in electricity tariff. The Proposals for safeguarding the Electricity Supply An analytical review of our past electricity generation mix records would reveal this eminently feasible and attractive way forward. At the above public energy committee meeting, it was further noted that while the electricity utility consumed over 900,000 litres of diesel per day for power generation, in April 2026, the amount came down to some 350,000 litres per day in May. It is important to consider and recognise the circumstances which led to this turnaround, even if not adequate to solve the problem. The Island newspaper reported on 8 June 2026 that to overcome the deficit of some 27 GWh of coal power, caused by substandard coal imports, the gap had to be filled with diesel power once more. Lack of courage to face the problem and declare limited power cuts to overcome it ,is the reason for this state of affairs. The resultant extra cost is said to be Rs 4.5 Billion. Accordingly, the startling fact is that the unit cost of diesel power generation was Rs 166/kWh, but the utility charges only Rs 100/kWh for consumers with a monthly consumption over 180/kWh since 11 May . Those with lower consumption are charged much less. These figures highlight the unsustainable reliance on diesel. It is very likely that there would be a call for increasing the consumer tariff once more in September when the next tariff review is due. This is in spite of the lowered world crude oil prices on 17 June 2026, due to a framework for peace signed between the USA and Iran. As per the IMF edicts, the Utility has to recover all its costs from consumers, irrespective of their mode of operation and efficiency or the lack thereof. Change from April 2026 to May 2026 is illustrated above. (See image 1)
Further the dramatic decline in use of diesel highlights the past scenarios we illustrated earlier with possible increase in the availability of major hydro power in May with the onset of the monsoon. With added increase in ground mounted solar. It is to be noted that the large input from rooftop solar PVs is not recognized here. Sri Lanka has experienced the most encouraging instances of generating all its electricity without the use of any oil including diesel, furnace oil or Naptha on isolated days, all too infrequent, but it is noteworthy. (See image 2)
The days of zero or near zero use of oil for power generation listed below, unfortunately did not receive the attention of either the Utility or the Ministries of Power or Finance. Such attention could have resulted in a much more progressive electricity sector and a much lower consumer prices and saving of billions of dollars over the past decade. (See Table 1)
The bottom line is that when there is good May–Dec hydro generation, there is a scant need for oil-based generation. Past records show that in such good hydro years, the CEB was making profits and not in need of Treasury handouts. However, the dry season of January to April results in low hydro generation and generation costs rise. No one bothered to consider the means of filling the gap of lower hydro during the dry months with other available economical and indigenous renewable resources. Instead, the easy solution and perhaps the more profitable solution for some, and obviously not for the country, or the consumer, was the use of oil and even the so-called emergency power at enormous cost to the consumers. The authorities professed that there was no solution. Slow adoption of mini-hydro, wind, and biomass was making only a small impact. There was a singular lack of support for accelerating development of such projects in spite of the setting up of the Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority in 2007, expressly to facilitate and promote the development of the sector. That was the case until the acceleration of solar power development. (See graph 1)
The ignored impact of Surya Bala Sangraamaya Matters changed in 2010 with the declaration of the Surya Bala Sangramaya, opening the door for smallscale rooftop solar PV development. Further impetus was given by Net Plus and Net Accounting schemes. From 2016, exponential growth in the solar PV sector was recorded, reaching over 2300 MW through 150,000 mostly with sub MW scale domestic rooftop solar PV installations. The power generation industry was no longer the sole purview of large wealthy corporations. The consumers themselves became generators thus becoming “Prosumers” However, in 2025, the Surya Bala Sangraamaya suffered a setback, because of the machinations of the utility and others in authority; they did not recognize its true value. It is necessary to recognise the growing contribution of rooftop solar PV, recognised world over along with its variable nature and not unique to Sri Lanka. An attempt was made to include such strategies in the successive Long-Term Generation Plans, but without much success. How do we face the El Nino , already with us ? It is under these circumstances that we have to face El Niño or even a Super El Niño. At least in the electricity sector, the past records point to a way forward. It does not require much intelligence to discern the fact that * When there is good hydro we manage without oil and CEB can make good profits * But when there is low hydro, we have the advantage of much higher Solar energy * Only intervention that is needed is to provide storage batteries so that solar energy can be stored and used at night as well and thus avoid the need for thermal generation. * There is now some 2500 MW of rooftop solar and 400 MW of ground mounted solar and 170 MW of wind already installed, just waiting for the batteries to be added. * The Utility is dragging its feet on adding the large batteries at grid substations and ignoring the fact that much more urgent need for early benefits is by adding batteries at the distribution substations and even individual distribution transformers. * The Prosumers with 2500 MW of rooftop solar are ready and waiting to add the behind-the-meter batteries, provided that the Utility is willing to accept that option. Will this happen? Or, will anyone in the government realise this possibility and get cracking. Electricity and Irrigation It is argued that as for water allocation in case of drought conditions, priority should be given for drinking water and agriculture. While this is logical, I have never seen any figures related to the actual water needs and water discharge. Naturally, drinking water is the first priority. But what percentage is needed for this? Have we got logical strategies to maintain a balance between drinking needs and the power generation or Irrigation? Can’t we have the cake and eat it by making sure that the water released for irrigation also generates electricity? Short-term approach with long lasting advantages Therefore, it is my contention that the maximum attention should be paid to adding behind-the -meter batteries to get ready in case El Nino results in draughts, even during the conventional high rainfall periods, say June to December. If not, it would give us an opportunity to get ready with the infrastructure needed to make the best use of the basic facilities already built by the Prosumers and also to attract new Prosumers to install solar with batteries. These could then be ready to face the likely dry months from January to May 2027, however severe they are. My appeal is to the current Prosumers with rooftop solar and the many others, whose requests for grid connections have been rejected out of hand to install rooftop solar and batteries to operate in the off-grid mode and thus reduce their dependence on the grid significantly. This would automatically reduce the peak load demand and the need for diesel based generation and enable the reduced hydro resource to be used to meet the peak load at much lower cost. This is an interim measure and they should be permitted to participate by exporting any excess during peak hours, once the FIT scheme presently being developed is active. This is not the time and place to quote detailed numbers, but suffice it to say that if 100,000 Prosumers with 5 kWh batteries go off the grid during peak hours, it will help reduce the peak demand by 500 MW. The current peak load is only about 2900MW. This positive contribution could in fact be much greater if there is even the slightest signal of support from the state. If further evidence is needed the following table illustrates the contribution made by the Renewable Energy Sector to the Country on an annual basis. (See Table 2)
The potential is unlimited. Therefore, the current El Nino scare should be treated as a warning as well as an opportunity to get control of the electricity sector and ensure future energy security. (The writer can be contacted at parajayasinghe@gmail.com)