Successful government securities auctions anchor yield curve amid subdued trading

The secondary market yield curve remained broadly stable during the past week as subdued trading activity persisted around the Treasury Bond auction. Meanwhile, weighted average yields at the weekly Treasury Bill auction recorded declines across all tenors, First Capital Research stated in its latest weekly report. According to the report, secondary market activity opened on a cautious note with selling interest emerging ahead of the T-Bond auction, causing a slight upward adjustment in yields amid moderate trading volumes. As the week progressed, investor participation remained muted, with market participants largely staying on the sidelines in anticipation of the auction, keeping the yield curve broadly unchanged. Following the successful completion of the bond auction, the market witnessed mixed sentiment, with selling pressure concentrated at the short end and buying interest emerging in longer-dated maturities. However, activity remained subdued, and the yield curve largely held its ground through the weekend. At the Treasury Bond auction held on July 13, 2026, the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) successfully raised the full offered amount of LKR 150.0 billion. This comprised LKR 70.0 billion through the 2030 maturity, LKR 50.0 billion through the 2034 maturity, and LKR 30.0 billion through the 2037 maturity, at weighted average yields of 11.57%, 12.04%, and 12.58%, respectively. Similarly, at the weekly Treasury Bill auction held on July 15, 2026, the PDMO raised the full offered amount of LKR 120.0 billion. The 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills raised LKR 55.0 billion, LKR 35.0 billion, and LKR 30.0 billion, respectively. Weighted average yields declined across all tenors, with the 3-month bill easing by 8 basis points (bps) to 10.13%, the 6-month bill by 3 bps to 10.27%, and the 12-month bill by 1 bp to 10.20%. On the external front, the Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR) depreciated against the US Dollar, closing the week at LKR 336.3/USD compared to LKR 334.7/USD seen previously. Market liquidity within the banking system expanded significantly, starting the week at LKR 125.89 billion and closing higher at LKR 157.19 billion. Thus the market data may highlight a clear divergence between short-term liquidity comfort and long-term caution, which points toward a gradual steepening of the yield curve in the near term. The emergence of buying interest in longer-dated maturities (2034 and 2037) shows that institutional investors are eager to lock in double-digit yields while liquidity is high. This institutional support will likely place a temporary ceiling on long-term rates. The mild depreciation of the rupee (moving to LKR 336.3/USD) acts as a cautionary counter-signal. If the currency continues to face pressure, it could limit how far short-term yields can fall, flattening the curve back out.