Meteorological authorities have issued warnings of a 90% probability that current El Niño conditions will intensify into a very strong event by year-end, potentially exceeding any such phenomenon recorded since 1950.
The Department of Meteorology has raised concerns over the trajectory of this year's El Niño weather pattern, with Director General Ajith Wijemannage announcing that global forecasts indicate a more than 90 percent likelihood of very strong conditions developing by December. According to Wijemannage, climate models suggest there is nearly a 70 percent probability that this year's El Niño will surpass the intensity of all comparable events since 1950, potentially making it the strongest experienced in over seven decades.
The intensifying conditions have already begun affecting public health across the country. Wijemannage noted that elevated body temperatures among residents have been recorded in the North, North-Central, and North-Western provinces, as well as in Monaragala and Hambantota districts. However, the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces have experienced some relief due to intermittent rainfall patterns in these areas.
Water availability has emerged as another concern amid the dry conditions. The Irrigation Department reported that reservoirs under its management have declined to 37 percent capacity, prompting calls for public conservation efforts. Engineer H.N.P.S.D. Herath of the Water Management Division stated that current reserves are anticipated to sustain irrigation needs through the Yala season and until monsoon rains arrive in November and December. Meanwhile, the National Water Supply and Drainage Board has maintained that water treatment facilities nationwide continue operating at full capacity, with Chairman Chandana Bandara confirming that supply distributions remain unaffected despite regional drought conditions and a 56 percent reduction in Irrigation Department reservoir levels.
