Climate experts are calling on Sri Lanka to take immediate preparedness measures ahead of a potential El Niño event that could bring above-normal rainfall later this year followed by drought conditions in early 2027.
Sri Lanka faces a developing El Niño phenomenon that could significantly impact the country over coming months, according to discussions between climate specialists and the Department of Meteorology. While scientists cannot predict with certainty how the weather pattern will evolve, current indications suggest the possibility of above-normal rainfall later this year, followed by reduced rainfall and potentially severe drought conditions in early 2027. Unlike sudden disasters such as the 2004 tsunami, El Niño develops gradually over many months, potentially giving the country time to implement preventative measures.
The potential impacts of a stronger El Niño event could be widespread, ranging from prolonged dry spells and water shortages to reduced agricultural production, increased wildfire risks, heatwaves and localised flooding. According to climate analysts, wildfires during dry periods pose a particular threat, as they can spread rapidly through forests and grasslands, destroying ecosystems and critical infrastructure while straining emergency services. The authors of the warning emphasise that understanding worst-case scenarios before they occur greatly improves the ability to prevent them from becoming national catastrophes.
Experts stress that investing in preparedness is both a humanitarian responsibility and a sound economic strategy, particularly given Sri Lanka's current fiscal constraints. Key priorities recommended include strengthening climate monitoring systems, developing comprehensive drought and flood preparedness plans, enhancing water resource management, and improving coordination among government agencies. Water security is highlighted as a critical concern, with recommendations to strengthen groundwater protection and implement long-term strategies in drought-prone regions.
The Disaster Management Centre is reportedly already engaged in preparedness planning, though analysts argue that prevention requires a coordinated national effort involving government agencies, scientists, farmers, businesses and communities. Measures proposed include accelerating adoption of drought-resistant crops, establishing firebreaks in vulnerable areas, maintaining strategic food reserves and conducting public education campaigns. The overarching message is that preparedness, though requiring significant investment, costs substantially less than disaster recovery.