The World Meteorological Organization predicts El Niño conditions will intensify significantly through the end of 2026, potentially triggering water shortages, drought, and agricultural losses across Sri Lanka at a critical moment in the country's economic recovery.

International meteorological forecasters are sounding alarm bells over the expected strengthening of El Niño conditions over the coming months, with the World Meteorological Organization projecting the phenomenon will develop into a strong event by year's end. According to reporting from The Island, the current outlook indicates a moderate but growing risk of serious impacts on Sri Lanka, though some observers have attempted to downplay these concerns.

The anticipated effects pose significant challenges to the country's economy and food security. Potential consequences identified include water stress, drought, reduced agricultural yields, food price inflation, decreased hydropower generation, heatwaves and broader economic losses. The timing is particularly concerning, as Sri Lanka is attempting to recover from its worst-ever economic crisis. Water levels in major reservoirs have already declined substantially, limiting hydroelectric output and creating immediate pressures on both farmers and the broader economy. To compensate for reduced hydropower capacity, authorities may need to increase fossil fuel consumption, placing additional strain on foreign currency reserves.

Agriculture experts, including Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe, have warned of potential crop losses during the anticipated dry spell and called for preventive action. Marambe has advised farmers to adjust planting schedules according to rainfall patterns and adhere to agricultural authority guidelines. The Island reports that authorities are considering strategic food reserves, potentially reimposing restrictions on using rice for beer and animal feed production, noting that rice cultivation is exceptionally water-intensive.

Government officials have reportedly begun developing a coordinated national action plan addressing water, food and energy security. However, experts emphasize that immediate contingency measures must be paired with long-term structural reforms, including modernized irrigation infrastructure, forest conservation, rainwater harvesting expansion and increased renewable energy investment to build genuine climate resilience.