OPEC+ is expected to approve a production quota increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day starting in September, after which the group will pause further output increases for the remainder of the year as it completes the unwinding of voluntary production cuts.
The OPEC+ alliance plans to greenlight a modest production increase on Sunday as it continues rolling back supply reductions implemented since 2022. The seven core members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—have been gradually raising monthly production quotas throughout the year. However, these increases have largely remained theoretical rather than materializing in actual output, as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have constrained exports from Gulf nations, Russia, and Kazakhstan.
The September increase marks the completion of a phased reversal of a 1.65 million barrel-per-day cut agreed upon in 2023, when the group included the United Arab Emirates before it departed OPEC in May. Following this adjustment, OPEC+ delegates and sources indicate the group will likely freeze further production increases through the end of the year. This pause comes as the alliance confronts potentially contentious negotiations regarding future production quotas.
The production hold would preserve approximately 2 million barrels per day of cuts dating back to 2022 while OPEC+ undertakes a comprehensive review of members' production capacity. This assessment will establish baseline figures for 2027, from which future quotas will be calculated. Some member nations, notably Iraq, are advocating for larger individual quotas that better correspond to their assessed productive capacity, suggesting potential friction over how additional supply will be distributed among the alliance.
