Sri Lanka's Department of Meteorology has raised the probability of the current El Niño conditions continuing through the first quarter of 2025 to 97%, with forecasts indicating prolonged dry weather and elevated temperatures across multiple regions.
The Department of Meteorology has significantly increased its confidence that El Niño conditions will persist into the early months of 2025, with Director General Ajith Wijemannage announcing a 97% probability based on global forecasting models. The announcement was made at a media briefing on the 20th, as officials reassess the trajectory of the climate phenomenon affecting the island.
Dry weather is anticipated to remain widespread across numerous parts of the country during the coming month, with the Northern, Eastern, and North Central provinces particularly affected, alongside Monaragala District. This dry pattern is expected to have significant implications for water availability and agricultural activities in these regions.
Looking ahead to the early months of 2025, meteorological officials have cautioned that rainfall during February, March, and April could fall substantially below normal levels. Simultaneously, temperature increases are forecast for this period, with the Department warning that the combination of these factors may result in heat conditions that could prove challenging for the population to manage.
