Former President Ranil Wickremesinghe has cautioned that Sri Lanka could experience another severe economic downturn from late 2028 onwards if the country fails to build sufficient foreign exchange reserves to approximately US$15 billion.
Speaking at a book launch event in Colombo, former President Ranil Wickremesinghe raised concerns about Sri Lanka's economic trajectory beyond the current debt relief period. He warned that the nation faces a critical juncture when debt repayments resume after 2028, describing it as the country's "third war" following previous economic challenges.
According to Wickremesinghe, the Central Bank projects foreign reserves will reach around US$8 billion by the end of 2026. However, he highlighted a significant gap between this figure and the estimated US$15 billion considered necessary to weather the upcoming debt repayment obligations. The former president stated that Sri Lanka currently lacks a clear strategy to generate the additional US$7 billion in foreign exchange reserves required to reach this target by 2028.
Wickremesinghe emphasised that obtaining debt relief until 2028 does not resolve the country's underlying economic vulnerabilities. He pointed out that the current IMF programme is scheduled to conclude by the end of March 2027, leaving a gap in the country's economic framework. The former president claimed his administration had introduced key legislation, including the Central Bank Act and Public Debt Management Act, to establish stability. He contended that the current government had opted not to continue the economic transformation programme without presenting an alternative plan.
Without decisive action to strengthen reserves and prepare for resumed debt servicing, Wickremesinghe warned that Sri Lanka risks sliding into another serious economic crisis. He framed the challenge ahead as a critical test for the nation's economic management.
