Meteorological officials warn that El Niño conditions will intensify significantly by late 2024 and persist until April 2027, compounding already severe dry weather affecting multiple provinces across Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka's Department of Meteorology has cautioned that El Niño effects are expected to persist through April 2027, with the phenomenon intensifying substantially in the coming months. According to Meril Mendis, Director of the Forecasting Division, there is an over 80 percent probability that El Niño conditions will strengthen to significant levels by November, December, and January. The department indicated that maximum impacts from this year's El Niño have not yet materialized, with observable development expected from August onwards.
Current dry weather patterns are already creating concerning conditions across multiple regions. The department has reported elevated feels-like temperatures in the Eastern Province and districts including Monaragala and Polonnaruwa. Officials have advised residents in affected areas to take precautions such as wearing light clothing, taking frequent breaks, and maintaining adequate hydration. Particular attention is being recommended for elderly individuals and those with existing health conditions.
While the Southwest Monsoon is currently active and bringing some rainfall to western and central regions, the Department of Meteorology projects that overall precipitation will decline in coming days. Dry conditions are expected to persist in the Northern, North Central, and Eastern provinces through September. Mendis noted that although reduced rainfall during the May-September Southwest Monsoon period is typically normal, El Niño conditions are expected to intensify this situation further. Rainfall is anticipated to increase during October through December, but the department warned of potential decreases again during the first quarter of 2025 due to El Niño influence.
